History, like fashion, is cyclical and we are constantly seeing it repeat itself time and time again. Let's take a look together at Ukraine's history to see what insights we can pull which might have influenced today's unfortunate situation.
As of writing this blog post the most recent update to the situation is that the prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia are travelling to the Ukrainian capital by train to show support for the country on behalf of the EU, the first foreign leaders to visit Kyiv since Russia invaded last month. This trip is taking place on the 20th day of Russian President Vladimir Putin's "criminal aggression against Ukraine". Putin has begun this attack with the aim of overthrowing Ukraine's democratically elected government and absorbing it into the Soviet Union (supposedly).
The 1990's: An Independent Ukraine
Ukraine only gained full independence at the end of the 20th century. Parts of Ukraine had seen independence previously in the years 1918-20 but during the years between WW1 and WW2 (1918-1939) western Ukraine was ruled by Poland, Czechoslovakia and Romania. After WW2 Ukraine then became part of the Soviet Union and was known as the Ukrainian Socialist Soviet Republic.
1990 -1991: The Soviet Union began to unravel in the years 1990-91. In 1990 Anti-communist protests sweep central and Eastern Europe, starting in Poland and spreading throughout the Soviet bloc and 1991 saw an unsuccessful coup by leader Gorbachev which led to the fall of the communist party, separating the power of the party from that of the presidency of the Soviet Union. With the dissolution of the U.S.S.R. in December 1991, Ukraine gained full independence. The country changed its official name to Ukraine, and it helped to found the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), an association of countries that were formerly republics of the Soviet Union.
2000's: Stuck between a Rock and a Hard Place
During the 2000's Ukraine see's itself attempting to join NATO and the west but is kept out due to its perceived alliances with Russia.
1992: NATO allies contemplate adding central and Eastern European members for the first time, Ukraine formally establishes relations with the alliance, though it does not join.
1994: After the Soviet Union's collapse, Ukraine is left with the world's third-largest nuclear stockpile. In the "Budapest Memorandum" treaty, Ukraine agrees to trade away its nuclear infrastructure in exchange for guarantees that the three other treaty signatories — the US, the UK and Russia — will "respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine."
2004: This year sees some disputes during Ukraine's democratic government election. The countries' previous leader is Kuchma, who has led the country from a socialist to capitalist society over the past 10 years and who's presidency was in question during the year 2000, over a scandal over audio recordings that reveal he ordered the death of a journalist but remained in power. This party wins the election amid accusations of rigging and massive protests follow. The public outcry becomes known as the Orange Revolution. After a third vote, Yushchenko, the opposition leader, prevails.
2008: NATO promises that Ukraine will one day be a member of the alliance but does not put it on a specific path for how to do so. U.S. President George W. Bush supports Ukraine's membership, but France and Germany oppose it after Russia voices its displeasure.
2010's: Unrest in Ukraine & The Crimean Annexation
The 2010's saw a lot of political and geopolitical unrest in Ukraine and its surrounding nations.
2013-2014: Just days before it is to be signed, President Yanukovych announces that he will refuse to sign an association agreement with the European Union to bring Ukraine into a free trade agreement. He cites pressure from Russia as a reason for his decision.
The announcement sparks huge protests across Ukraine and in late February, violence between police and protesters leaves more than 100 dead in the single bloodiest week in Ukraine's post-Soviet history. Ukraine's parliament voted to remove Yanukovych and install an interim government which charges him with mass murder of the Maidan protesters and issues a warrant for his arrest.
Russia then declares this removal of Yanukovych an illegal coup and sends armed Russian soldiers to the Crimean Peninsula [Crimea is a peninsula along the northern coast of the Black Sea in Eastern Europe. It has a population of 2.4 million, made up mostly of ethnic Russians with significant Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar minorities].
With Russians soldiers in control, Crimea votes to secede from Ukraine and join Russia with Putin announcing its official annexation in March of 2014. In response, the U.S. and allies in Europe impose sanctions on Russia. They have never recognised Russia's annexation. It remains the only time that a European nation has used military force to seize the territory of another since World War II. Russians soldiers are now active on Ukraine's borders and unrest breaks out in Ukrainian Donbas and two eastern regions Donetsk and Luhansk declare independence from Ukraine, though this is never internationally recognised.
2010's Onwards: Russia is Looming
In late 2014, the Minsk agreement is signed which is a deal between Ukraine and Russia to quiet the violence under a cease-fire, though this does not last and the violence continues.
2015: The Minsk group meets again in Belarus to find a more successful agreement to end the fighting in eastern Ukraine, resulting in the Minsk II agreement, which has also remained unsuccessful.
From 2014 through today, more than 14,000 people have been killed, tens of thousands wounded and more than a million displaced. Together, the annexation of Crimea and the Russian-backed violence in the east have pushed Ukrainian public sentiment toward the West, strengthening interest in joining NATO and the EU.
2019: Comedian and actor Volodymyr Zelenskyy is elected president in a landslide rebuke of Poroshenko, Ukraine's previous leader. He vowed to make peace with Russia and end the war in the Donbas however, his early efforts to reach a solution to the violence are slowed by U.S. President Donald Trump, who briefly blocks U.S. military aid to Ukraine and suggests to Zelenskyy that he should instead work with Putin to resolve the crisis. This is likely due to Trump's alleged dealings with Putin during his presidential term.
2021: Fears emerge that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent as Putin sends 100,000 troops to Ukrainian borders under the guide of "military exercises". With these fears in mind, Zelenskyy visits the White House to meet with President Biden. Biden emphasises that the U.S. is committed to "Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russian aggression" but repeats that Ukraine has not yet met the conditions necessary to join NATO. Biden is also skeptical of expanding the US's military commitments.
Where are we now?
On Feb. 21, 2022 Putin formally recognises the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic and orders Russia's military to deploy troops under the guise of a "peacekeeping" mission. This was declared the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In January and February the US moved troops to Germany, Romania and Poland in anticipation.
On Feb. 24, Russian forces launch a devastating assault on Ukraine which was the largest military operation in Europe since the end of World War II. Missiles fired on Ukraine's cities and thousands of Russian troops from neighbouring Belarus and from Russian-held Crimea reportedly begin streaming into the countryside while Ukrainian forces to hold back the Russian advance on several fronts. To stop the war, Putin wants Ukraine to recognise Crimea as part of Russia and to recognise the independence of the separatist-run east. And he demands that Ukraine changes its constitution to guarantee it will not join Nato and the EU.
As we can see, Ukraine's independence has been fraught since its beginning in the 1990's and looking at its history even in recent years has made it clear that this Russian invasion was just waiting to happen. Thankfully, now more than ever this cannot be ignored by the rest of the world and with our interconnectedness thanks to social media we can feel the affects of this invasion more intimately than any unrest in the country before. We are now more aware than ever of the intricacies of geopolitics and can get a play-by-play of events as they unfold. All we can do is support Ukraine where possible, staying on top of the news feels more important than ever.
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